投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 -

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 -

羅傑斯的12箴言，成功人生最受用的智慧

1.不要讓別人影響你　──假如每個人都嘲笑你的想法，這就是可能成功的指標
2.專注於你所愛──在真正熱愛的工作上努力，就會找到你的夢想
3.普通常識並不是那麼普通──大眾社會相信的常常是錯的，不要盲目聽信別人的話
4.將世界納入你的眼界──保持開放的心，做個世界公民
5.研讀哲學，學會思考(精采書摘‧內頁試閱Koobe)──訓練自己去檢驗每一種概念、每一個事實
6.學習歷史──因為以前發生過的事，以後也還會再發生
7.這是中國的世紀，去學中文──參與一個偉大國家的再現，購買這個國家的未來
8.真正認識自己──了解你的弱點和覺察你的錯誤，才能找到對的路
9.認出改變，擁抱改變──改變的功能就像催化劑，保持覺知是重要的功課
10.面對未來──看得見未來的人可以累積財富
11.反眾道而行──檢視事實和機會，不隨烏合之眾心理起舞
12.幸運女神只眷顧持續努力的人──用功讀書，學得越多你才知道你懂得越少

洪蘭原譯

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 -

洪蘭原譯：假如每個人都嘲笑你的想法，這就是可能成功的指標！
假如周遭的人都勸你不要做某件事，甚至嘲笑你根本不該想去做，就可以把這件事當做可能成功的指標正面的徵像。這個道理非常重要，你一定要了解：與眾人反向而行是很需要勇氣的。事實是，這世界上從不曾有哪個人是只靠「從眾」（follow the crowd）而成功的。
我用中國給你舉個例子。過去人家都說那不是一個值得投資的國家，而事實上，直到一九九0年代晚期之前，幾乎沒有西方人真的試著在中國投資過。但是假如當時有人把錢投資中國的話，他現在已經發大財了。
在一九八0年代，我發現中國大有濳力，於是開始盡我所能的蒐集中國的資料，開始在這裡投資。當時大部分人都認為我瘋了才會這麼做，他們說這個食古不化、不知變通的共產國家，絕對不會允許外國人在這裡投資成功，而且他們會沒收成功者的財產。

原文: If anybody laughs at your idea, view it as a sign of potential success!

If people around you try to discourage you from taking a certain course of action, or ridicule your ideas, take that as a positive sign. Sure it can be difficult not to run with the herd, but the truth is that most long-term success stories are written by folds who’ve done exactly that. Let me give you an example.
When I was thirty-two years old or so, a Wall Street colleague of mine invited me to join a smart and successful group of financial guys who regularly got together to swap ideas over dinner. At the time, I and a partner were in the early years of our hedge fund called the Quantum Fund. It was a big deal to ve invited to these dinners, and, I must admit, I was a little nervous. After all, these were the big guys in my field, and most of them had a great deal more experience than I did.
We were sitting in the private room of a fancy midtown Manhattan restaurant when the host asked each guest at the table to recommend an investment. Most of them touted so-called growth stocks. When my turn came, I recommended Lockheed, the aerospace company. Once extremely prosperous, by the 1970s it had fallen on hard times. A fellow sitting opposite me smirked and, making sure that I heard him, stage-whispered, “Who buys stocks like this? Why buy a bankrupt company?”……
I had a similar experience with my investments in China. People used to call the country a graveyard for investors, and as recently as the late 1990s, few Westerners invested there. But those who did made a fortune. What did I know that others didn’t? Well, back in the 1980s, I sensed China’s potential and decided to learn everything I could about it and start investing my money there. Many people told me I was insane; that the rigidly Communist Chinese government would confiscate money earned by successful people, especially outsiders.

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (四) - 1

Common Sense? Not So Common
普通常識? 並不普通

Most perceived wisdom is a misconception.

大多數人公認的智慧，是一種誤解。

I’ve written about the need to follow your own intelligence, to think for yourself,. As you travel the journey called life, you will come across conventional wisdom – accepted “truths” about how to behave, or what to study, or eat, or how to invest. You must remember never blindly to accept what you hear or read, no matter how many people believe it or how strongly they advocate it. Always consider alternative interpretations. The popular beliefs embraced by the larger society are often mistaken. I want to explain how to make sense of “common sense.”

我寫下了希望妳們能運用自己的智慧，獨立思考。在生命的旅程中，妳們會遇到的傳統智慧 – 要妳們接受所謂的“真理”，並如何做或者如何學習，如何吃，如何投資。但妳們必須記住，無論有多少人相信或跟從，都不要盲目地接受妳們聽到或讀到。要用不同的角度去思考。大多數的人認同並跟從的，往往是錯誤的。我想要解釋所謂的“常識”。

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You see, when you begin something, you may not always have a concrete picture of vision of the future. But if you continue to be passionate and work hard at what you truly love to do, then you will eventually find that dream. Which may morph into yet another dream. And another. At this point in my life, you, my daughters, are my focus and passion. That is why I spend every moment possible with you. You are my dream today, and all I want is for both of you to do what you love and live smart, interesting lives with a dream.

當你開始做某些事的時候，你可能沒有一個未來的具體畫面。但是如果你繼續熱情且辛勤的努力去做你真正喜歡做的，那麼你最終會發現這個夢想。這可能再演變成一個接著一個的夢想。在這一點上，我的女兒們，是我生活的關注和熱情。這就是為什麼我時時刻刻跟妳們在一起。妳們是我現在的夢想，我希望的是妳們都能做妳們愛做的工作和過有夢想的有趣生活。

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Live your life with a dream.
擁有夢想的生活

In addition to finding a fulfilling vocation, you must have a dream. In my young years, I thought that making money was fun, but I didn’t really have a plan beyond that. Had I continued down that path, I would have lost interest by now. Investing around the world exposed me to a range of cultures and different people. Eventually I realized that my dream was to seek adventure and learn about the world by seeing as much of it as I could. So, at the age of thirty-seven, I began traveling the globe on a motorcycle.

除了尋找一個職業，你還必須有一個夢想。在我年輕的幾年，我還以為賺錢很有趣，但我並沒有一個真正的計劃。如果我繼續沿著這條道路走，我會失去興趣。世界各地的投資，向我展示不同的文化和不同的人種。最終我意識到，我的夢想是尋求冒險和了解這個世界，能看到多少是多少。因此，在我37歲時，我開始騎著摩托車去周遊世界。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) - 10

During my first motorcycle circumnavigation in 1990 and 1991, I looked forward to spending in time in Algeria, my second stop in Africa. I had every intention of investing there. But once I discovered that the country had a currency black market with a 100 percent premium – well, I lost interest real quickly. Algeria’s problems came to the fore in the next few years. I later figured out there were absurd price controls and a government printing huge amounts of money to pay its bills. Workers, merchants, and everyone else were being squeezed. It was no surprise that voters soon elected a protest party that was then overthrown by a military coup. Investing in countries or anything else when easily observable information suggests doing the opposite can be a brilliant strategy, but only if your own deeper analysis shows positive change around the corner. Be careful! At the turn of the millennium, the African nation of Zimbabwe was a major agricultural exporter that also sold coal and other minerals abroad. Its currency was stable, and the stock market attracted investors to some sound companies. Since then, however, the political situation in Zimbabwe had deteriorated badly, pulling down the economy. Now the country, riddled with violence and corruption, is desperately begging for food handouts, exports have plummeted almost to zero, and the annual rate of inflation is over 200,000 percent. The government just prints money to reward its friends, so that money there loses its value literally overnight.

在於 1990年和1991年我的第一次摩托車旅行，我期待去我在非洲的第二站-阿爾及利亞。我都打算在那裡投資。但一旦我發現，該國貨幣匯率與黑市匯率差百分之百。我馬上失去興趣。阿爾及利亞的問題在那的未來數年就突顯出來。後來我想通了，有荒唐的價格管制和政府印刷了大量的資金來應付開支。工人、商人和其他國民都被壓抑著。不久當選為選民抗議黨推翻了當時的軍事政變，也是毫不稀奇。當容易觀察到的資料表明，做相反的策略投資這國家，也可以說是一個非常聰明的策略，但是僅在當你自己更深入的分析表明後。要小心！在西元二千年，非洲國家的津巴布韋是一個重大的農業出口國，也出口煤和其他礦物。它的貨幣是穩定的，股市也吸引一些優良企業的投資者。但自那時以來，津巴布韋的政治局勢嚴重惡化，也拖累經濟。現在，這國家充斥著暴力和腐敗，拼命乞求施捨，出口下降到幾乎為零，全年的通貨膨脹率是百分之20多萬。政府只是印貨幣獎勵盟友，使貨幣在一夜之間失去其存在的價值。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) - 9

When investing widely in a particular nation, begin by checking the strength of the country’s basic institutions. Does it have respect for the rule of law? Does it crack down on corruption? Does the legal system facilitate ethical corporate behavior? You cannot do this by simply reading articles in magazines and newspapers. You must go to the country yourself and see, for example, if there is a currency black market. If one exists, then you know that the country has problems. Black market exchange rates exist only when the government is imposing artificial controls. The difference in parity between the official currency rate and the black market rate indicates the gravity of the problem in that nation. It is symptomatic. The higher the fever, the worse the sickness; in other words, the greater the gap in parity, the deeper the problem.

當要大量投資一個的國家，首先要檢查這國家的基本制度。是否尊重法治？打擊腐敗？是否有法律制度幫忙促進企業道德的行為？你不能只簡單地閱讀文章，雜誌和報紙。你必須親自去這個的國家看看，例如看看這國家如果有貨幣黑市存在。如果存在，那麼你就該知道這國家的問題。黑市匯率的存在，表示政府有實施人工控制。官方貨幣的匯率和黑市匯率差越多，表示問題越嚴重。這是一個症狀。越嚴重的疾病，發的燒越高。也就是說，差距越大，問題越深。

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Here’s another example: As recently as the 1990s, there was no better value on Wall Street than Sears. Its stock always seemed cheap, but few were even aware of a growing discount company called Wal-Mart; they never bothered to examine what was happening in small towns throughout the United States. Those who did began to buy stock in Wal-Mart instead of in Sears, JCPenney, and all the other good-value stores.

還有另一個例子：是在1990年代，華爾街沒有比西爾斯更有價值的股票。一家折扣商店名為沃爾瑪股票似乎總是很便宜，但很少有人注意到，投資者從未費心去審視在美國小城鎮裡正在發生的事情。那些有做功課的投資者開始購買沃爾瑪股票而不是在西爾斯公司、潔西潘妮或是其他商店的高價股票。

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In the 1960s, General Motors was the world’s most successful company, and everyone coveted its stock. One day a GM analyst went to the board of directors with the message “The Japanese are coming.” They ignored him. In fact, they didn’t even bother to listen to him. Investors who did broad homework sold their high-value General Motors stock then and there and bought Toyota instead. The Japanese were building smaller, more efficient, and extremely reliable cars, which quickly found a huge market worldwide, including here in the States. U.S. car manufacturers had been dictating to the marketplace rather than listening to their customers. They’ve been forced to play catch-up to their Japanese counterparts ever since.

在1960年代，通用汽車公司是世界上最成功的公司，每個人都覬覦通用汽車的股票。有一天，通用汽車公司的一位分析師給董事會一個訊息 “日本人來了。” 董事會不理睬分析師。事實上，他們根本連聽都不想聽。做了功課的投資者，當時就賣了高價的通用汽車公司股票，買了豐田股票替代。日本汽車公司做出更小、更高效且很可靠的汽車，也很快抓住了全球巨大的市場，也包括美國。美國汽車製造商自以為可以向市場發號施令，而不聽客戶的需求。至今都是被迫要去追趕日本同行。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) -6

If and when you decide to pursue investing or whatever your fancy, do not underestimate the value of due diligence. Look through each and every financial statement you can get your hands on, including the detailed notes. If you just read the annual reports of companies, you will have done more than 98 percent of investors. If you read the noted of the financial statements, you will be ahead of 99.5 percent. Verify those financial statements, as well as future projections announced by the top executives, by doing your own legwork. Talk to customers, suppliers, competitors, and anyone else who might affect the company. Do not invest unless you can say with absolute certainty that you are more knowledgeable about this particular firm than 98 percent of Wall Street analysts. Believe me, it can be done. But only with the extra effort.

如果當你決定繼續投資或追求你的夢想，不要低估盡職調查的價值。看每個詳細筆記和財務報表。如果你只是看公司的年度報告，你已經超過了百分之九十八以上的投資者。如果你看了全部的財務報表，你會超過百分之九十九點五以上的投資者。自行做收集工作，去驗證這些財務報表，以及公司高層管理人員對未來的預測。訪談該公司的客戶、供應商、競爭對手，以及任何可能影響該公司的人。除非你可以絕對肯定地說，你比百分之九十八以上的華爾街分析師更了解這個公司，不然決不投資。請相信我，這絕對是可以做到的。只要額外的努力。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) -5

When I was an undergrad at Yale University, a fellow history major asked me how many hours I’d studied for a recent exam. “I put in five hours,” he said, very satisfied with himself. I couldn’t five him an exact number, since I’d never stopped studying. Arriving at Yale from rural Alabama, I was in over my head, to tell you the truth. Most of the other students had attended elite prep schools and were far better prepared than I was. My advantage, though, turned out to be that I worked much harder than they did. For me, there was no such thing as “enough.” No finish line.

當我是耶魯大學的大學生時，有個主修歷史的同學問我，最近的考試我唸了幾個小時。他很滿意的說“我花了5個小時唸書”。我不能給他一個確切的數字，因為我從未停止過學習。那時來自阿拉巴馬州農村，能到耶魯的我，真的是覺得意氣風發。其他大多數學生都有參加過精英預備學校，對耶魯的學習，都遠遠比我有更好的準備。但是我的優勢是我做的比他們更認真。對我來說，沒有什麼事是“夠了”，也沒有底限。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) -4

Attention to details is what separates success from failure.

注重細節讓你免於失敗

If you love and care about what you do, you will naturally want to do it the best that you can. In investing, as in life, the small details often spell the difference between success and failure. So you must be attentive! However trivial it may seem, you must research and check each and every piece of information you need to make a decision. Leave no questions or nagging feelings of uncertainty uninvestigated. The most common reason why people do not succeed is that their research is faulty or limited to the confines of what is immediately available. Only through meticulous research will you obtain the knowledge necessary for success. It requires abundant work and diligence, but the effort will give you a distinct advantage over your competitors.


如果你很在意你做的事，你自然會把這件事做到最好。在投資和在生活中的小細節中，往往可以看出成功者和失敗者的不同。所以，你必須注意！可能看起來微不足道但必須仔細的研究和檢查每一個細節，再作出決定。對所有的不確定性都要進行調查。最常見沒有成功的原因是，這些人的研究是錯誤的或是資訊不全。只有通過細緻的研究，才會獲得正確的資訊。這需要付出很大的工作量和努力，但是，這些努力帶給你的優勢，會遠遠超過你的競爭對手。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) -3

Three or four years later, I brought the same energy to a job I obtained with Mr. Brooker, a local home builder. At first, I couldn’t even hammer a nail straight, and the men on the job weren’t shy about pointing this out. But when we were awaiting deliveries of building materials or had nothing to do, I ‘d gather up the scrap lumber or sweep up the sawdust or whatever else I couldn’t find. “ Say what you want,” the contractor told them, “but this kid never stops. He has the right attitude, he has the proper approach, and I want him working for me.” Eventually I did learn to drive nails as quickly as anyone, dig foundations, install roofs, and all the other skills necessary to do the job. If it weren’t for my work ethic, I might never have gotten the chance.


三，四年後，我到當地房屋建築商布魯克先生的公司上班，也是以同樣的精神努力工作。起初，我甚至連釘子都釘不好，同事們都笑我。但是，我們正在等建築材料送過來或是沒工作可做時，我都會整理木材或掃木屑的找事做。承包商說，“隨便你們怎麼說，但這個孩子一直在做事。也有正確的態度，我希望他當我的員工。“最終我跟其他人一樣能很快的釘好釘子，挖地基，安裝屋頂，和做所有這個工作所需要的技術。如果不是我的職業道德，我就可能沒有機會做到。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) -2

“There is always something you can be doing,“ he used to say. “When there’s nothing else to do, dust the shelves.” And that’s exactly what I did. My initiative so impressed my uncle that he gave me a raise without my having to ask for one. That came as a big surprise, since Uncle Chink was not exactly known to be loose with money.


“總是有一些你可以做的事，”他常說。 “如果沒有什麼別的事情可做，清一下貨架上的灰塵。”而這正是我所做的。我的自動自發，讓中國佬叔叔對我印象深刻，竟在我有沒有要求下給加薪。這可是個很大的意外喔，因為叔叔佬可是個有名的小器鬼。

投資大師羅傑斯給寶貝女兒的12封信 - (三) -1

Good Habits for Life and Investing
生活和投資的良好習慣

Be a self-starter
當一個自動自發者

At fourteen, I spent my Saturday mornings working for my Uncle Chink – who had been called this since the 1920s because Alabama people thought he looked Chinese – preposterous, looking back on it now. He owned a tiny convenience store across the street from a stockyard and a factory. The workers used to amble in to buy sandwiches, cigarettes, chewing tobacco – that kind of store. My job was to help wait on customers and stock the shelves. Sometimes business was slow, but I never sat idle, in part because of some advice from my father, Jim St., the manager of the Borden Chemical plant in town.

14歲時，我利用星期六早上我在現在的中國佬叔叔店裡工作 –從1920年以來，他就被叫做中國佬叔叔，因為阿拉巴馬州人都覺得，他長的很像中國人 -現在回首起來，覺得有點荒謬。中國佬叔叔在一家工廠和一個倉庫對面，開一個小小的便利商店。那種工人都會過來買三明治，香煙，和嚼煙的便利商店。我的工作是接待客戶和補貨。雖然有時店裡沒生意，我卻從來沒有閒過，有一部分原因是我在波登化學廠當經理的父親老吉姆的意見。